Who and What Will Win

By Brian Biekman     2/20/13 6:00pm

Controversy surrounds the Academy Awards. Film nominations are political, and winners are sometimes undeserving.  Cinephiles argue over best picture winners decades after they are decided. However, what is beyond dispute is that the Academy Awards are an integral part of Hollywood's magic. For those who love film, no night better celebrates cinema.  And luckily for audiences this year, the nominations are deserved in no small part due to the fact that summer releases and foreign films, which rarely get Academy recognition, both received nods for best picture and best director (Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour, respectively). In fact, the only undeserved nomination is the self-indulgent  Les Miserables for best picture. Here are my predictions and picks for Sunday:

 

Best Picture

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The Nominees:

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild 

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln 

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

 

What Will Win: Lincoln

Argo took the top prize at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes, but the lack of a best director nomination makes victory for producer/director Ben Affleck improbable. The last best picture winner that did not receive a best director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy in 1990. Amour won the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival and countless Film Critics' Circle Awards, but its subject matter is so depressing that many voters will be repelled. Life of Pi was the feel-good movie of 2012 but has few major awards. Lincoln has the most nominations, is high-brow and you feel smarter for watching it. Argo could pull an upset, but producer/director Steven Spielberg looks poised to enjoy his second best picture Oscar and third best director Oscar.

 

What Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

This movie frustrates me in the most wonderful way. The action sequences are so gripping I could watch them every week, but the torture scenes are so painful I don't think I could handle a second viewing. Ninety-five percent of movies are a few hours of escapism at best. The directors tie all the loose ends together and allow the viewers to forget about what they watched instantly. Not Zero Dark Thirty. When the credits roll, the audience has to seriously reflect on current and former American foreign policy. The conclusions might not change, but one thing is certain: No one can watch this film and not view the War on Terror in a different light.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The Nominees:

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Denzel Washington - Flight

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

      On Sunday night, Day-Lewis will become the first person to win three best actor Oscars. He has won almost every major award. The other nominees should not even bother writing acceptance speeches. If Anne Hathaway losing would draw gasps from the crowd, Day-Lewis losing would draw demands for a recount.

Who Should Win: Denzel Washington

Day-Lewis gave the most technically masterful performance of the year. But Washington took a far greater risk in portraying alcoholic pilot Whip Whitaker. When playing an addict, one wrong move elicits a slew of bad laughs. But Washington delivered one of his most visceral performances, joining Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas and Harvey Keitel in Bad Lieutenant as one of the all-time great movie addicts.

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

The Nominees:

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

      BAFTA winner Riva has an outside shot, but this is probably a toss-up between Lawrence and Chastain. Both won Golden Globes (Lawrence for comedy, Chastain for drama), but Lawrence won the SAG Award, which is about 2/3 accurate in predicting the Oscar winner. Also, the unwarranted controversy around Zero Dark Thirty may scare off voters who do not want to be portrayed as pro-torture.

Who Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva

   Riva stands above the rest as an elderly wife and mother suffering through the final stages of life. Her character's health deteriorates from perfectly abled to paralyzed on one side to losing bowel control to speaking-impaired. Yet we believe her at every stage and know we are viewing the same person with the same hopes, fears and desires, even when she cannot express them.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The Nominees:

Alan Arkin - Argo

Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Hoffman's role as a cult leader based on L. Ron Hubbard won praise from many film critics' circles, but the cryptic nature of The Master will turn off voters. I give a slight edge to Waltz, who has a BAFTA Award and a Golden Globe, over Jones, who won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award. However, it certainly could go the other way, especially if Lincoln wins big.

Who Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones Waltz was brilliant, but his role is not supporting - he co-stars with Jamie Foxx - and fellow cast member Samuel L. Jackson brought more depth to his character. On the other hand, Jones gave the standout performance in a movie full of superb performances. Hoffman, as always, does great work, but I will associate Thaddeus Stevens with Jones' portrayal for years to come.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The Nominees:

Amy Adams - The Master

Sally Field - Lincoln

Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway

      The Oscar is hers to lose. She has already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the SAG Award and nearly every film critics' circle award. If any name other than Hathaway is called Sunday night, expect an audible gasp from the crowd.

Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway

       Les Miserables was one of the most disappointing moviegoing experiences of my life, but Hathaway's performance as a single mother forced into prostitution was spellbinding. Her agonized rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" was the best scene of 2012. Hunt was downright charming as a sex surrogate for a man afflicted with polio, but Hathaway was the one thing right in a movie where nearly everything went wrong.

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