Commentary: Astros come out of the gate whiffing
We knew it was going to be bad, but we did not expect this. The Houston Astros blasted off with the worst start in baseball, going winless for their first eight games but sitting, as this newspaper went to press, at a nicer record of 5-9. Already four games behind in the National League Central Division, the Astros are looking for answers. What went wrong?
There are two easy answers, and they explain part of the team's problems. One is that star Lance Berkman began the year injured, depriving the lineup of its best hitter for a dozen games. Another is that general manager Ed Wade wasted the offseason and did little to make the team better. I have argued that point in a previous column ("Ineptitude starts at top of Astros' organization", Feb. 19) and will not do so again here, especially because we can all agree that, despite the wasteful offseason spending, the Astros really shouldn't be this bad.
I see three basic problems. The first is that the Astros batters have forgotten how to work the count. The Astros have a league-worst 18 walks in 14 games this year, and it's not because their opponents are throwing nothing but strikes. Except for Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger, who account for two-thirds of the team's walks, the Astros hitters seem to have lost all their patience at the plate. David Wright has more walks (19) than the entire Houston roster.
How much does this matter? Impatient hitting and an inability to walk rob a team of scoring opportunities. To give an example, the Astros have just three fewer hits than the Atlanta Braves, but the Braves have scored 24 more runs and won three more games, largely because Braves batters walk four times as often.
The second problem is defense. BaseballProspectus.com ranks the Astros last in the major leagues for "defensive efficiency," a statistic measuring what percentage of balls in play result in outs. Houston has average error numbers, but that is because some of the team's aging defenders, like Carlos Lee and Kaz Matsui, have such limited range that instead of mishandling the ball, they just let it go by.
The third problem is the sudden reversal of Wandy Rodriguez. This year, Wandy hopes to prove that his remarkable performance in 2009 (3.02 ERA, 193 strikeouts) was not a fluke. One-year wonders certainly do have a remarkable history in baseball: Anthony Reyes won a brilliant World Series victory for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006 but has never pitched well since, and Fausto Carmona received multiple votes for the Cy Young award in 2007 before returning to mediocrity the next year.
After only three starts, it is too soon to say that Wandy Rodriguez may be meeting the same fate. But he is certainly at risk, given that he has thrown equal numbers of walks and strikeouts and has been hittable so far. Last week, rumors abounded that Rodriguez was experiencing shoulder soreness and might be hurt.
If Wandy can regain his 2009 form soon, the Astros' starting pitching will regularly give their team chances to win games. If he cannot, the season may be uglier than anyone could have predicted.
What can be done? Wandy needs to find his groove. Berkman needs to find his, too, now that he is healthy again. Only more practice will improve the team's defense. Athletic shortstop Tommy Manzella, brought in to bolster the Houston defense, instead leads the team in errors, but he should improve with time.
Most of all, though, the Astros need to learn how to be patient. As free agent outfielder Elijah Dukes once told the press, "A walk is as good as a hit. ... You don't always have to get a hit. You can walk sometimes to beat a team, too." So far this year, the Houston Astros have not been getting hits from players like Carlos Lee, who is batting .145. Because they aren't walking either, the result is that the Astros simply do not score many runs.
Patience is the key. Astros hitters will need patience to get on base more. Astros management will need patience as Lance Berkman and three bullpen arms recover from injuries. And Astros fans will need patience as their team, nevertheless, charts an unmistakable course toward last place in the National League.
Brian Reinhart is a Wiess College senior and former calendar editor.
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